Poker odds explained: outs and pot odds
When you’re waiting for one more card to finish a hand, two quick numbers tell you whether calling a bet makes sense: how likely you are to hit, and how much the call costs compared with the pot. You don’t need to be good at maths. Multiplying by 2 or 4 gets you close enough.
What is an out?
An out is a card still in the deck that would turn your hand into a winner. Say you hold A♥7♥ and the flop is K♥9♥2♣. Any heart gives you a flush. There are 13 hearts and you can see 4, so 9 hearts are left: you have 9 outs.
Count each card only once. If a card would complete both your flush and your straight, it’s still one out.
The rule of 2 and 4
To turn outs into a rough chance of hitting:
- On the flop, with two cards still to come and no more betting to pay for, multiply your outs by 4.
- On the turn, with one card to come, multiply by 2.
With 9 outs for a flush, that’s about 36 % on the flop (the exact figure is 35 %) and about 18 % on the turn (exactly 19.6 %). If someone bets on the flop and you’ll have to pay again on the turn, use the ×2 number, because you’re only buying one card at a time.
Common draws
| Draw | Outs | Hit on the river (turn → river) | Hit by the river (flop → river) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gutshot (inside straight draw) | 4 | 8.7 % | 16.5 % |
| Two overcards | 6 | 13.0 % | 24.1 % |
| Open-ended straight draw | 8 | 17.4 % | 31.5 % |
| Flush draw | 9 | 19.6 % | 35.0 % |
| Flush draw + gutshot | 12 | 26.1 % | 45.0 % |
| Flush draw + open-ended straight draw | 15 | 32.6 % | 54.1 % |
Exact chances, counting the 46 or 47 cards you can’t see.
Pot odds: what a call costs
Pot odds compare the price of a call with what you can win. The share of the final pot you are paying is:
your call ÷ (the pot after you call)
Example: the pot is 100 and your opponent bets 50. The pot is now 150, and calling 50 makes it 200. You’re paying 50 of 200, which is 25 %. So you need to win more than 25 % of the time for the call to pay off in the long run.
With a flush draw on the turn you hit about 19.6 % of the time, which is less than 25 %, so folding is usually right. On the flop, if you’re all in and will see both cards, you hit 35 % of the time, which is more than 25 %, so calling is right.
Implied odds
Sometimes a call that looks too expensive is still fine, because when you hit you’ll win more chips later in the hand. That extra is called implied odds. Be careful with it as a beginner: it only counts if your opponent will really pay you off, and it never applies when they’re already all in.
Questions people ask
How many outs does a flush draw have?
Nine. There are 13 cards of each suit, and with four of them in your hand and on the board, nine are left.
How many outs does an open-ended straight draw have?
Eight: four cards of the rank that completes the straight at each end, like any 5 or 10 with 6-7-8-9.
What is the rule of 2 and 4?
Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop (two cards to come) or by 2 on the turn (one card to come) to estimate your chance of hitting in percent.
How do you calculate pot odds?
Divide the amount you must call by the size of the pot after your call. Calling 50 into a pot that becomes 200 is 25 %, so you need to win at least 25 % of the time.